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Usually, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year award follows a straightforward formula. It frequently serves as a type of mea culpa. Our apologies we underestimated your squad in our pre-campaign projections.

Theoretically, it's a direct line: the skipper who oversaw the largest turnaround is handed the prize. In reality, it creates an yearly discussion about preseason outlooks and whether we're genuinely honoring superior coaching or just the greatest upset.

But the current competition is profoundly different. The pool of nominees is unusually strong. It has been the season of comebacks. The league has been chaotic, with recent division winners declining and longtime underperformers ascending in unison. During an normal season, a coach guiding the Denver Broncos to the summit of the AFC would make him the clear favorite. Yet in such a chaotic and fun year, he's facing several other exceptional coaches.

This is how the ideal ballot could look.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Coach of the Year voters love quarterbacks. They always have. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. If you solve a quarterback, you're halfway home.

The Bears' head coach not only fixed his young quarterback; he's unleashed him. In the right ecosystem, the QB has been afforded the chance to showcase his special ability. From Week 9, the Chicago offense rank fourth in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a brief surge – it's consistent excellence. Under Johnson, Williams has become increasingly decisive, far less reckless, and has eagerly submitted to the scheme instead of freelancing. It is an attack designed entirely in Johnson's image: a physical run game, a heavy dose of play-action and a innovative passing attack that creates wide receiver receivers consistently. The QB has taken advantage. And when easy reads weren't available, he's been able to create magic from nothing.

Johnson arrived to Chicago with a defined offensive vision. Almost every gamble – rebuilding the trenches, utilizing the pass-catchers, turning Williams into a timing-based thrower – has paid off. That's rare for a rookie head coach. And it's rarer still for a leader who walked into the organization with the level of hype he did. For two straight cycles, he was the most sought-after name on the coaching carousel. But when it comes to selecting a leader, there are no guarantees. Somehow, he has lived up to expectations – and even surpassed them. He's proven not only to be a offensive wizard but the type of leader that can inject fresh energy into an franchise.

In a normal season, Johnson would be the runaway favorite. But this is not a normal season!

Where his candidacy runs a bit unstuck is on defense. The Bears currently rank in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are surviving on turnovers, and takeaways are notoriously inconsistent. Defensive minds can stress creating turnovers, but nobody can guarantee it. Johnson is on the list because the offensive production is legitimate. He's ranked lower because variance is doing an outsized share of the defense's work. If not for a few bounces of the ball, the Bears would be several victories worse off. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the core is established for sustained winning. However Johnson falls just short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, Their Record

Coen is in a similar situation to his counterpart. He's a fellow first-time head coach who has masterminded a rapid resurgence. Over the crucial final weeks of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the best overall ball of his career. And he's also spearheaded the remaking of a defense that now ranks fifth in the league in EPA per play.

What's more impressively, Coen has excelled at the leadership stuff, which was not a guarantee after his initial press conference introduction and some of his offseason moves.

Coen walked into Jacksonville with an exceptionally raw staff. In contrast to other coaches, who packed their staff with the perfect coaching mix of youth and experience, he hired first-timers. Starting with the head coach on down to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with rookies. That kind of approach is exciting on paper, but often fails in reality – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everyone is learning a new job in real-time. Yet Coen has managed to bring everyone and all elements into sync.

Following an early hot beginning, there was a risk that the campaign would go off the rails. A mid-year collapse caused the Jags wobbling once more. That's typically when leaders overcorrect. He didn't. Rather, he streamlined things. Jacksonville stopped chasing explosive answers and started seeking sustainable ones. The coach refocused the offense around key players and the ground attack, and encouraged Lawrence to use his legs more often.

The outcomes are clear. The Jaguars have won multiple games in a row and will be the conference's number three seed. Coen gets the slightest knock in the rankings because he took over a skilled roster, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Every Strong of the Year narrative has a defining moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback decision.

Parting ways from a incumbent, signing a new quarterback and partnering him with an innovative play-caller could have ended the season in October. Rather, it made it. Through the mid point of the year, the acquisition was an MVP contender. He has fallen away after that time, slipping to a lower rank in EPA per pass attempt over the second half of the schedule, placing him only a single place ahead of peers.

Still